Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.765708 6.759463 7.855674 9.152167 10.641109 12.294933 14.268377
2025-08-03 4.201030 5.532654 7.158928 9.279663 11.959352 15.218749 19.468005
2025-08-10 3.074481 4.479482 6.352162 9.004305 12.632136 17.384492 24.037496
2025-08-17 2.288029 3.647214 5.603926 8.581007 12.939390 19.017551 28.047284
2025-08-24 1.816282 3.135846 5.168812 8.460752 13.569205 21.081830 32.813207
2025-08-31 1.479082 2.747384 4.825533 8.384361 14.200352 23.162263 37.778496
2025-09-07 1.294999 2.566818 4.767002 8.723427 15.484952 26.328873 44.680231
2025-09-14 1.102429 2.327417 4.560550 8.768210 16.270433 28.763127 50.646928
2025-09-21 0.944452 2.117717 4.365496 8.790877 16.999380 31.152048 56.743054
2025-09-28 0.814173 1.934425 4.184889 8.803696 17.695100 33.530970 63.021143
2025-10-05 0.783279 1.952342 4.394261 9.579086 19.865163 38.670532 74.527197
2025-10-12 0.713627 1.870356 4.386783 9.921039 21.245902 42.512304 84.048802
2025-10-19 0.651768 1.797486 4.394244 10.309841 22.794082 46.867043 95.012628
2025-10-26 0.569581 1.658555 4.236348 10.330597 23.613512 49.942392 103.908088
2025-11-02 0.476278 1.469600 3.931741 9.984015 23.627392 51.455889 109.960297
2025-11-09 0.391174 1.281014 3.592680 9.503835 23.288040 52.219407 114.595784
2025-11-16 0.337062 1.165723 3.412492 9.366430 23.679145 54.496893 122.446893
2025-11-23 0.293246 1.069607 3.263570 9.280652 24.171948 57.023917 131.013997
2025-11-30 0.273244 1.042756 3.294796 9.651833 25.771203 62.057858 145.233868
2025-12-07 0.243795 0.977398 3.207338 9.700670 26.599971 65.471296 156.254786
2025-12-14 0.217237 0.914766 3.116161 9.725426 27.370434 68.818544 167.394967
2025-12-21 0.193645 0.856187 3.026121 9.739447 28.113844 72.165750 178.795504
2025-12-28 0.194370 0.888818 3.221865 10.589376 31.098501 80.953627 203.074782